WASHINGTON—Saturday’s Taiwan election, seen as one of the most significant in recent history, has captured the world’s attention due to its far-reaching implications for U.S.–China relations.
Many in the international community have seen the election as a referendum on the island’s sentiment toward communist China and the United States.
When the news broke early on Jan. 13 that the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which favors stronger ties with the United States, had won the presidency for another four years, attention shifted to the White House.
A few hours later, President Joe Biden stepped out of his residence, broke from his routine, and took some questions from reporters before heading to Camp David for his weekend retreat.
As expected, the first question directed at him was his reaction to Taiwan’s election.
This time, the president exercised caution, mindful of his previous remarks, which had enraged Beijing. He offered a brief comment: “We do not support independence.”
Later, the U.S. State Department issued a statement congratulating current Taiwanese Vice President Lai Ching-te, the DPP candidate also known as William Lai, on his victory in the presidential election.
“The United States is committed to maintaining cross-Strait peace and stability and the peaceful resolution of differences, free from coercion and pressure,” the statement reads.
Leaders in Congress and many U.S. lawmakers also released statements welcoming Mr. Lai’s historic win.
Many saw the outcome of this crucial election as a sign of Taiwanese resistance to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), which tried to sway the election through threats and media campaigns.
Gordon Chang, a senior fellow at the Gatestone Institute and author of “The Coming Collapse of China,” characterized President Biden’s response as “weak” and wished the U.S. president had displayed more strength.
“I think he was just trying to placate Xi Jinping,” Mr. Chang told The Epoch Times, referring to the CCP leader. “People in Taiwan, who are barely 100 miles from this large, menacing power, aren’t afraid of China. Why should the President of the United States be afraid of China?”
Rupert Hammond-Chambers, president of the US–Taiwan Business Council, also reacted to President Biden’s brief statement, saying it supported Beijing’s stance and made things worse.
“I think it’s an unnecessary concession. And it undermines America’s long-term position on Taiwan’s sovereignty,” he told The Epoch Times.
China claims Taiwan as part of its territory, despite Taiwan being a sovereign nation with a democratically elected government. The CCP has vowed to conquer Taiwan by force if necessary.
President Biden has stated on multiple occasions that the U.S. military would support Taiwan if the Chinese regime were to launch an invasion of the island, departing from the long-standing U.S. policy of “strategic ambiguity,” which is to be deliberately vague about what Washington would do in the event of an attack. His officials have repeatedly walked down his comments, claiming that the U.S. approach has not changed.
However, under the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979, Washington is obliged to provide the self-ruled island with the means to defend itself from attack.
Threats and Election Meddling
Leading up to the election, China exerted significant pressure on Taiwan through various means, including the deployment of spy balloons and engaging in psychological warfare.
Since December, Taiwan’s defense ministry has reported dozens of Chinese spy balloons crossing the sensitive Taiwan Strait that separates the island from China, with some passing directly over the island.
Beijing has long viewed the DPP with hostility, seeing the party and its agenda as roadblocks to its path to the island’s “reunification” with the mainland. The communist regime has favored the main opposition, the Kuomintang Party (KMT), which sees Beijing as a lesser threat to the island’s national security.
On Jan. 13, the ruling party DPP won a historic third term, with Mr. Lai securing over 5.5 million votes, or about 40 percent of the ballot. His running mate, Hsiao Bi-khim, who stepped down as Taiwan’s de facto ambassador to the United States in November, will be the new vice president.
Hou Yu-ih, the current New Taipei City mayor and the KMT’s presidential candidate, finished second with about 4.6 million votes. And Ko Wen-je, former Taipei mayor and presidential candidate for the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), a relatively new party created in 2019, came in third with around 3.6 million votes.
Former Undersecretary of State Keith Krach praised the election results, seeing them as a sign of the Taiwanese people endorsing continued U.S.–Taiwan relations.
“In the face of persistent threats and meddling from the Chinese government, Taiwanese citizens stood resolutely behind their democracy and sent a clear message to the rest of the world,” he told The Epoch Times in an email.
In September 2020, under President Donald Trump, Mr. Krach traveled to Taiwan, becoming the highest-ranking State Department official to visit the island since the United States established diplomatic relations with Beijing in 1979.
According to Mr. Krach, as long as Taiwan remains free, the CCP will continue to cause tensions in the Taiwan Strait.
Prior to the election, the Chinese regime went so far as to describe the election as a critical choice between “peace and war.”
Mu-Jen Wu, a Taiwanese American living in New York City, said that Election Day marked a significant moment for Taiwan’s democracy.
He and his family are strong advocates of Taiwanese independence and believe that President Tsai Ing-wen has led the country well during the last eight years.
“The election result is a validation of President Tsai’s policies: less reliance on China and continuation of de facto independence without declaration,” Mr. Wu told The Epoch Times.
Nonetheless, he feels that with a divided legislature, the next four years will require the ruling party to collaborate effectively with the opposition.
Hung Parliament
In Saturday’s election, the DPP failed to secure an absolute majority in the Legislative Yuan. No party is holding a dominant position in the 113-seat body.
Mr. Hammond-Chambers acknowledges the challenges posed by a divided chamber for the incoming president.
“It’s going to be more complicated. There’s going to be more negotiations, and critically, it’s going to take more time to process whatever legislation the two sides agree to work on,” he said.
It is also uncertain how the split parliament would affect Taiwan’s relations with the United States and other countries.
If the KMT-controlled legislature, for example, doesn’t support increasing defense spending or tries to shorten conscription from one year to four months, it won’t be well-received in the United States, Mr. Hammond-Chambers said.
In Taiwan’s 2016 presidential and legislative elections, the DPP defeated the KMT by a landslide and has been in power since.
The KMT is the heir of Chiang Kai-shek’s government, which ruled much of China from 1928 until it fled to Taiwan in 1949 after losing the Chinese Civil War against the CCP. The KMT ruled the island under martial law until 1987 before overseeing Taiwan’s transition to democracy. Nowadays, the KMT is known to advocate for closer relations with Beijing.
During his campaign, Mr. Hou, 66, pledged to boost defense spending while also resuming talks with the CCP as part of his “3D Strategy,” which stands for “Deterrence, Dialogue, De-escalation.”
What Comes Next?
In Washington, many expect that China will be unnerved by the election results and will react in some way.
Bonnie Glaser, managing director of the German Marshall Fund’s Indo-Pacific program, believes that Beijing will refuse to resume official contact with Taiwan’s government, which has already been suspended for the past eight years.
The CCP has accused Mr. Lai and his running mate, Ms. Hsiao, of being a “dual-separatist combination,” which it calls the “most dangerous combination.”
“Xi’s desire to preserve the fragile stability in US-China relations that was achieved at the Woodside summit with President Joe Biden in November will probably be one factor that will deter him from taking exceedingly harsh measures against Taiwan, at least for the remainder of this year,” Ms. Glaser said in a note.
“Nevertheless, Chinese pressure on Taiwan can be expected to continue and may increase, although use of military force to punish Taiwan or compel unification is unlikely,” she said.
Mr. Chang said that Beijing’s threats of war against the people of Taiwan before the election were counterproductive to its goals.
“I don’t think China is in any position to use force to annex Taiwan. So at least for the moment, I think that’s just huffing and puffing,” he said.
Coordinating a comprehensive military operation, including air, land, and sea, is very challenging task for any government, he added.
“China has never done that in its history,” Mr. Chang said, noting that the CCP leader Xi was concerned about the probable failure of such an operation.
If such a failure occurs, it could spell the end for the CCP, he said.
“I think Xi Jinping doesn’t trust his military. We can see that with all the mass purges and disappearances. So, I don’t think that Xi believes that his military is prepared to fight.”
For U.S. companies, China’s response is a cause for concern due to its potential to raise costs and disrupt business operations.
Mr. Hammond-Chambers expects that the CCP’s grey zone activities, including economic coercion, military exercises, cyber threats, and other tactics, will intensify again.
According to Mr. Hammond-Chambers, the crucial question is how the Biden administration will react to China’s response to the DPP’s victory.
He is urging Washington to take action beyond mere verbal responses when addressing Beijing’s threats.
For instance, if China escalates grey zone activities or military exercises, he suggests that Washington respond by selling more arms to Taiwan. Similarly, if China attempts economic coercion against Taiwan, he recommends that the U.S. Congress expedite the approval of the U.S.–Taiwan tax agreement, which will help facilitate investment between the United States and Taiwan.
Is Taiwan Ready for War?
While many experts and policymakers do not see an imminent invasion of Taiwan, they argue that the most effective way for the United States to deter China from attacking the island is by boosting its combat readiness.
Jim Fanell, a retired U.S. Navy captain and former director of intelligence and information operations for the U.S. Pacific Fleet, believes Taiwan has not given enough attention to its national defense.
Since 2020, China has intensified its military activity around Taiwan, with hundreds of aircraft flying near the island each month. Despite this surge in military activity, both the United States and Taiwan have responded cautiously for fear of offending China and sparking a wider invasion, Mr. Fanell told The Epoch Times.
“That was wrong thinking,” he noted, adding that the necessary action now is for the United States to collaborate with Japan and other regional allies to enhance Taiwan’s defense capabilities.
According to Mr. Fanell, the U.S. military should also be well-prepared for a conflict with China.
The U.S. Department of Defense is currently facing a crisis regarding its ability to develop, build, and mass produce weapons, he said.
Additionally, he pointed out that while the United States has devoted substantial time and effort to ground wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Syria over the past 35 years to combat terrorism, it has not sufficiently prepared its military for a naval conflict against China.
Mr. Fanell also believes that the current stance of strategic ambiguity must cease.
“The United States needs to provide and present itself in terms of military posture to ensure that Beijing has no doubt about the U.S. commitment.”
Karla Jones, a Taiwan expert and senior director at the American Legislative Exchange Council, concurs, stating that showing a clear stance is the best way to prevent conflict with Beijing.
“I believe that the best way to avoid conflict is to show clarity of purpose, and that’s where strategic ambiguity has failed. It’s led China to believe that Taiwan isn’t as important to America as it is,” she told The Epoch Times.
“America takes its partnership with Taiwan seriously and takes the Taiwan Relations Act seriously,” she said.
Frank Fang contributed to this report.
From The Epoch Times
